Work package 3 (WP3) synthesizes the knowledge in terms of synchronized and fine-tuned observations and identified leading-order processes and interactions, by combining these into dedicated numerical model studies. The improved fully coupled Global Climate Models-Ice Sheet Model (GCM-ISM) simulations of paleoclimatic states will indicate how the advanced descriptions of leading or amplifying processes enhance the simulated state by comparing the reconstructions and simulations.
We will directly compare simulations of the Eemian and future warm periods, along with marine Inter Stadial 3 (MIS3) low sea ice concentration events and possibly also the transient phases leading up to these. We will quantify the Arctic/Greenland/Europe temperature teleconnection related to snow accumulation on Greenland (in particular at the ice core drilling site; Renland).
Global Climate models (GCMs) will be used to study the large-scale circulation and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to provide detailed Greenland information. The improved model systems will also be used to project the contribution of the jointly acting processes to future sea level rise and the impacts of the released fresh water and its way through the system will be analyzed in detail. Finally, the identification of insufficiently resolved properties will help to point to future model development.
Ultimately, the new insights into the climate system will uncover how it has operated in the past and how it will probably respond in the future.