DMI/NBI Bimonthly meeting to keep updated on ice2ice activities within and between the NBI and DMI groups. Norwegian colleagues are more than welcome.
Agenda:
- Helle: update on Renland CFA data (conductivity, dust, black carbon)
- Vasileios: update on Renland water isotope data
- Iben: Surface mass balance -Renland
- ice2ice general info
- Peter: Contrasting current and projected changes in surface mass balance components across the Greenland Ice Sheet (see abstract below)
- Sindhu: Update on total air content measurements
- Christian: Modeling efforts (if time allows)
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Contact Helle Kjær.
Peter Langen: Contrasting current and projected changes in surface mass balance components across the Greenland Ice Sheet
Comparison of the last decade’s low surface mass balance (SMB) on the Greenland ice sheet to the changes that are projected for a warming future allows the current mass loss to be placed in a broader perspective. We compare changes in SMB components in HIRHAM5 regional climate model experiments forced by current ERA-Interim reanalysis data and by future projections with the EC-Earth general circulation model. The EC-Earth-forced experiments run over time slices 1991-2010, 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
SMB decreases considerably in the in the last decades of the ERA-Interim experiment. The changes between the early and later part of this experiment are therefore compared to changes in the future scenarios relative to the baseline 1991-2010 EC-Earth-forced experiment.
A major increase in melting and runoff, particularly along the western margin, is common to both the current and projected situations. Over the reanalysis period, accumulation has decreased in many places, particularly in the south. This is linked to the dominant circulation pattern in the last decade and enhances the effect of increased melt and runoff in producing the recent low SMB. In the projections, however, accumulation increases and thereby partially offsets the mass loss. This offset is so efficient that only in the warmest scenario in the latest time slice is the SMB decline significantly stronger than the current one.