Workshop: Paleoclimate states as future climate analogues
Location: DMI, Copenhagen
Time: From 09:00 2nd of may -3 May 2018
Organizers: Rasmus (CIC), Peter, Shuting, and Ida (DMI)
Participants: ice2ice partners (potentially few relevant external collaborators)
You can find the agenda here: Agenda_Analogues-workshop
You can find directions here: Getting_to_DMI
Please sign up using the following link, and share your ideas to help us shape the workshop:
https://goo.gl/forms/ysV71TBKYjvD7rHr2
[**Please sign up by March 23**]
- Contributions from both proxy and modeling experts are crucial for a successful workshop.
We hope to see many of you in Copenhagen soon!
Description:
One of the key themes in ice2ice is to what extent past abrupt changes have relevance for future climate change. Inspired by potentially similar warming trends in past (stadial-interstadial and glacial-interglacial) climates and future scenarios, we will discuss the applicability of paleoclimate states as analogues for future warming.
This workshop aims to intercompare proxy data reconstructions, paleoclimate modelling efforts, and future model projections with a particular focus on sea ice related warming in the Arctic (especially Greenland and the Nordic Seas region).
Specific topics during the workshop will be:
- Rate of warming and sea ice loss
Are the rates of warming and sea ice loss in the past, eg. MIS3 stadial-interstadials or the deglaciation (proxy + model), and future scenarios (model) comparable? When we talk of past and current/future change in the Arctic, how good is the analogue in terms of abruptness?
- Nordic Seas vs central Arctic Ocean
Comparison of past sea ice changes in the Nordic Seas (proxy + model) to future changes in the Arctic Ocean (model). If changes in the Nordic Seas during MIS3 should be used as a parallel for potential changes in the Arctic Ocean in a warmer climate (interglacial or future), two questions arise: how do the two oceans compare (e.g. vertical structure) and how would SST/sea ice changes in the two regions affect the atmosphere/Greenland. Specifically, can we use our collective model and proxy data to answer: (1) Is the impact of sea ice loss/SST increase similar for Nordic Seas (MIS3) and Arctic Ocean (interglacial or future), and (2) could the same mechanism lead to abrupt changes?
- Different drivers
When comparing current-to-future climate change with preindustrial-to-last-interglacial changes, or when comparing current-to-future with stadial-to-interstadial changes, we need to consider the different driving mechanisms. Compared to the “apparently unforced” stadial-to-interstadial changes, the two former changes are forced by variations in GHG concentrations and insolation, respectively. To what extent can the different signatures of insolation and GHG changes be disregarded? There are indications that the resulting SST state is dominant for many atmospheric impacts, such that the driver is of less importance, but this needs to be addressed carefully when making past vs future analogues.
Contributions to the above from both the proxy and modeling sides is crucial to a successful outcome of the workshop.